Coming Attractions

Three weeks until our great reprieve, election day. Of course if you listen to either major candidate it may not be a reprieve at all if they aren’t elected, but rather a nudge off the precipice into the eternal abyss of federal dysfunction, horrific national security concerns and faltering economy… Oh wait, we’re there already. But at least after the pundits wind down about what did or didn’t work with the campaigns we can get on with our lives without the constant drone of fear-mongering (both parties) abrading our ears. I carry enough innate anxiety on my own, I don’t need someone else pouring fuel on my Xanax fire.

Regardless of the outcome of this election, the good thing is we are a resilient people, and at least for a while we should be looking at fairly calm waters. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see anyone coming out of this election happy. Somehow, with uncanny accuracy, we picked two people with way too much baggage for even the most resolute partisans to walk away truly content. In the back of the average person’s mind are a bunch of “what if’s”, but right now we only hear those questions channeled toward the opposition, and so perhaps mercifully we haven’t yet given our questions voice in our conscious mind.

But back to the good news! The world won’t end on January 20^th, whoever takes the oath, unless it was ending anyway. So I find myself pondering, what will the new administration bring? How will it impact life? Just how did the Deep Thought computer come up with 42? But narrowing that topically, how will this impact the fleet profession, the automotive world we work in. So let’s stare into the waters and see if we can decipher our future!

Thought #1. We are in deep, really deep on some technology, so there is no turning back:

Autonomous cars are becoming feasible, electric cars are improving, ride-sharing is evolving and mass-transit solutions are diversifying. Regardless the environmental push asserted (or not) over the next term or two, way too many people have skin in the game to just let this stuff die now. I honestly don’t know how many American folks take a hard-line environmental stance these days, but I do know there is more environmental awareness than I’ve ever seen in all my years until now. Even if those interests don’t steer legislation, financial interests will. With that much money invested in these technologies, don’t fight it… Roll with it. That train keep a comin’.

Thought #2. Highway safety mandates will continue to blossom:

Domestic highways run consistently faster, with cars that do so with more ease, than ever in automotive history. But while the cars are absolutely the safest we’ve ever made them, we continue to have stunning fatalities and crippling accidents. Growing up driving in the mid-late 1970’s I had a number of cars that would cap 3 digits, but all required 2-hands on the wheel and at least some concentration once the speedometer needle hovered up there, and none ever did it on crowded highway either. But sanity and fear may not exist anymore. Now I see folks doing 90+ MPH fly-by’s staring at their smartphone.

Thought #3. We will again see fuel-price volatility:

How am I so certain? Again, the mighty dollar. The OPEC folks won’t keep the throttle wide-open on their crude production forever, but since they have this long, producers here have once again curtailed production. When the mid-east curtails, our own producers can’t respond quickly to void, and so the prices will go up (perhaps violently). This dynamic could take some time, or be more immediate if exacerbated by international response to our own new administration, but I am pretty convinced we will see more up and down as long as petroleum is our principal drink of choice.

I have many (many) more observations, but then you do too. I was just looking to prime the pump.

© 2016 D.W. Williams 

At What Cost

I’ve been negligent in chronicling my automotive rants lately, having gotten sucked into that swirling vortex that is daily-living.

Additionally, there is a new phenomenon in play that baffles me and commands my attention. In a country fraught with racial tensions, economic woes and (ugh) political campaigns we now seem to market shootings as if they were reality TV. Not to be outshined by these horrible news-events turned entertainment, our political leadership, incumbent and prospective, use the opportunity of human tragedy to posture and push their agenda. I find the rancor repugnant. I still want to believe America is better than all this, that she has value other than what self-advancement we can squeeze out of divisiveness…. Maybe that day is done, so let’s just have Hillary and The Donald duke it out on American Ninja Warrior. It’s what we want anyway.

On May 7 Joshua Brown lost his life as his Tesla, at full highway speed, drove under a tractor semi-trailer pulling across the road. Brown was operating the vehicle in “autopilot” mode, which is a technological pit-stop before we hit full car automation. This technology allows the car to maintain lane, speed and brake as required during highway cruise. NHTSA and Tesla both still have this incident on the half-shell, but it has been assumed the car didn’t brake itself as it didn’t recognize the light colored trailer against the bright sky. To little contrast for it to differentiate the threat.

Tesla reiterates that that the driver is ultimately responsible for the car’s (or technology’s) usage. Yes, and as a manager I am responsible for the performance of my assigned employees. This doesn’t mean I think out every move they make or control every event of their day. I “trust” that they understand their tasks and that they will involve me if they don’t. I put someone in place to perform a task, so I let them perform it. Likely regardless of what legal releases Mr. Brown signed at the dealership, this was his understanding of his car’s technology as well. He trusted it would do what it was designed to do.

Back to the cost: So here we have a situation where an individual mistakenly entrusted a technology with a critical task to the loss of his own life. By his reasoning and past experience, the car would do what it had to do, go down the road and leave him out of the mix. NHTSA’s most recent published records are 2014 data, but in that year 32,675 people lost their life in automotive accidents. About 90 funerals a day. By way of contrast, in 2013 (CDC’s latest stats), 11,208 people lost their lives due to firearms in our 50 states; this data includes malicious intent, accidental and defensive loss of life.

 And here’s the rub; Automotive or firearm causes, these people lost their lives; often through no fault of their own, or sometimes due to poor choices… sometimes just being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  I suspect a husband or wife, mother or father, son or daughter feels no less grief regardless of the cause of their loved one’s death. The tears don’t suddenly evaporate as they exclaim “oh, it was only a car”! Automotive deaths don’t drive TV ratings or make viable campaign fodder I guess.

Automated cars will bone up their act one day, getting more proactive, less prone to failure and “safer”. But regardless how automated and “safe” they get, there will still be deaths. People will use them; with all the poorly informed decisions that go along with personhood. We may not care for the answer, but ultimately Tesla is right, we alone are responsible for how we use the technology. So regardless of the technology, let’s use it responsibly.

© 2016 D.W. Williams 

The Accident

It was only recently that my college-age son got plowed into in an intersection a few blocks from our house. He was on his way to his (very) part-time job that he maintains to keep gas in his car and change in his pocket while in school. He had the right of way (eyewitnesses said for a solid 10-12 seconds) and the other driver clearly blew a very-red light. My son’s car got hit on the right front which spun him like a top; the impact bent the frame and destroyed the front clip of his beloved 25 year old Mazda Piñata (err… Miata). But he has quick reflexes and saw it coming, so he did some evasive maneuvering. I am satisfied based on what I saw at the scene that if my son hadn’t reacted quickly he would have been in the hospital.

The radiator was destroyed on my son’s car, so I overheard some of the police report as I showed up with my trusty log-chain to help him pull the sorry wreck home. I understand that the other driver had been swerving as he drove towards the intersection and that after the collision he stopped long enough to get out and look at the damage he caused. He then got back in his mangled car and drove away. Whether the guy was drunk or simply looking at his phone is a mystery to any of us. What isn’t a mystery is that he hit and ran. A couple of ladies sitting at the (red) light got pictures of him getting out of his car and also of his license plate, so it is hopeful that the police can track him down.

Likely this guy was one of those who couldn’t afford insurance and chose to run because he had none. Who knows; he might have even had his license pulled because of priors without insurance. Uninsured motorists seem more and more commonplace in urban areas. I suspect that the issue will continue to grow; rent, utilities and groceries continue to ratchet up in cost, but wages don’t. Unfortunately, just because you can’t afford what it takes to maintain a driving privilege doesn’t mean you can get along without it.  

The urban financial cycle is vicious and unforgiving. Lower income folks have no ability to find employment other than what is within walking distance or along transit routes. These jobs often provide little, either in benefits or salary. They often can’t afford to drive, but need to because there are no decent jobs, grocery stores or department stores close to where they live. These areas can’t support this infrastructure as crime is inevitably high and insurance (there’s that word again) for a store owner is unaffordable due to frequent theft and robberies. Busses? Sure, it’s feasible to carve 2½ hours out for multiple rides and transfers to accommodate a ½hr grocery run. But which of us would see that as a real option?

Solutions are few and far between. Public transit meets only some needs. Jobs above minimum wage typically require education that many can’t afford and are often available only in areas that urbanites can’t access without personal transportation. And as demonstrated recently, even a 4-year degree offers little additional hope of securing a reasonable job. Many grads today find themselves working at the McDonalds up the street because it’s all that was available. (Based on my recent search I can testify that many companies are looking for 25 year-olds with 30 years of work experience, master degrees and willingness to work for $12/hr.)

And so this installment of my blog offers no solutions, only questions. My son had his life put off kilter by this accident, but he got out of it uninjured and is already seeing this as an opportunity to upgrade his rolling-stock. And no- he isn’t collecting against insurance as he only carried liability on the Piñata. The other guy? Who really knows?  If the City hunts him down to prosecute, it’s kind of a blood-out-of-a-turnip deal…  Yes, his behavior was wrong and needs to change. But I’m not sure it does anyone any good to cripple him that much more by taking away what he already doesn’t have to guarantee he can’t get set straight.

© 2016 D.W. Williams 

Put it down and drive!

During my commute home the other day I saw another all too common episode of lunacy behind the wheel. My commute is on urban highway, so I see a lot of indecision and apparently dysfunctional self-preservation instinct. In fact, in my brief 7-mile drive it is rare that I see fewer than 3-4 daily incidents of either myself or someone in front of me falling victim to an unconscious motorist. Un-signaled close-call lane changes, inexplicable braking (hallucinations, or maybe flashbacks) and extreme tailgating. And no, that’s not a new reality show.

On that particular day traffic was heavy, but folks weren’t generally being real aggressive. I usually drive close to the speed limit because I don’t want to accumulate points. I have a CDL and also my teen years are sadly long gone. Because of that tactic I have lots of opportunity to observe people as they pass me going their otherwise regionally acceptable 70mph in a 55 (yes, really). I had seen this car approaching in my left side mirror, but it never materialized in my side window. A bit later it was dropping back into my mirror view again, and then pulling forward once more and eventually flanking me.

After more of this back and forth passing game I noted that the young woman operating the car was spending way more time looking down at her lap than the road in front of her. She was oblivious to the cars stacking up behind her or her lack of speed control, intent on whatever the tiny screen was showing her instead. Typically I had only seen this level of smart-phone induced coma at traffic lights. You know the deal; the light is green 8-10 seconds before these people get a clue and start to move. And how dare we interrupt their reverie, if we object.

So, my question; what monster have we unleashed with our newfangled gadgetry? Just because cars are smarter than they used to be, should we be stupider? Having worked in fleet for quite a while, I’ve had lots of opportunity to interview those that have been in wrecks. Well over 90% of those discussions revealed that some form of inattention was the root cause, either on the part of the operator I was talking to or the other party involved. Sometimes both, the “I didn’t see him coming” syndrome.

And that is the point I drill down to. If you don’t watch the road, how can you possibly react quickly and decisively to the traffic maneuvers of someone else that isn’t paying attention either? Should all cars just have those wrap-around bump-cages like recreational go-karts at the track, or would waiting 5-10 minutes to return a text or stare at your Facebook feed really kill you? Certainly not waiting can kill you, or someone else. How about we just put the phones down so we all get home alive tonight. Simple enough.  

© 2016 D.W. Williams